Constituencies with relatively more over-50s, homeowners and people of white ethnicity are key to Labour’s hopes of winning a majority at the election, the Guardian analysis suggests.

Experts have told the Guardian that in order to appeal not just to core voters but also to these swing seats in central England, Labor is trying to set a broad tone for the country.

Labor controls 200 of the new parliamentary constituencies, meaning it needs to win a further 126 seats to claim an overall majority at the election.

Looking at the 150 seats that Labor can most easily topple – marginal ones that will need the smallest swing to topple the Conservative or SNP majorities – the analysis shows that Labor will have to reach further than their usual urban strongholds and become more attractive should be for more rural, older and less developed seats. ethnically diverse areas.

The analysis is based on the 150 seats Labor would need to win, assuming a uniform national turnaround, with the party consistently making gains across the country. In reality, Labor’s gains would be less uniform and more influenced by local factors, meaning they could win seats with larger swings and lose seats requiring smaller swings.

Labor currently has a comfortable lead over the Conservatives in the polls, but the scale of the shift among voters it needs to become a party of government is enormous.

The party must make up for widespread losses in the 2019 general election and offset the impact of the recent review of constituency boundaries, which disproportionately benefited the Conservatives.

Overall, Labor needs to win at least 126 seats to achieve a working majority, but more than 150 to do so comfortably.

Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, said: “Labour has a broad focus on the country. That inevitably means they are trying to appeal to the average voter and not just their core voters. At the last election, Labor voters were younger, more urban and likely to be college graduates than the electorate as a whole. To win a majority, Labor must appeal to a different breed of voters from those they convinced last time, while still holding on to those who supported them before.

“The seats that Labor need to win, and are the most winnable, are center or swing seats, in the sense that they are the seats where Labor will win if they go to Labour, and if they don’t the Conservatives will do that.” remain in power. If some do and others don’t – and there are no big surprises elsewhere – then we are likely to see a hung parliament.”

Data note

Demographic figures for England and Wales come from the ONS, based on 2021 census data.

The 2019 theoretical results data comes from PA Media, based on research by Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher, David Denver and Nicholas Whyte, who modeled and merged the old results into the new frontiers.

Majority means the winning party’s margin of victory over the second-placed party, while the required swing represents the share of votes needed to flip the seat from the incumbent party to Labour.